BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-1%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
166Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Central Hardwoods. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+28%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
10–1795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 28% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 10–17). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025139.616
2026139.717
2027139.817
20281310.017
2029131017

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bays ForkKENTUCKY472019
YorkILLINOIS452024
GatewoodKENTUCKY322019
WashingtonINDIANA312024
AzaliaINDIANA272024
Levee 2KENTUCKY272019
HegiraKENTUCKY262024
RoyaltonILLINOIS252024
CelestineINDIANA252024
Indian Mound 2TENNESSEE252023
DixieKENTUCKY242019
CascadeMISSOURI242024
Buena VistaKENTUCKY232017
CollinwoodTENNESSEE232024
CumbackINDIANA222021
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY222023
Union HillTENNESSEE222024
Indian SpgsINDIANA212024
New PhilaINDIANA212024
MerrimacKENTUCKY212024
MincyMISSOURI212024
Cave In RockILLINOIS202024
EastviewKENTUCKY202024
GeorgiaINDIANA182024
Iron BridgeKENTUCKY181998

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.