BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+182%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 182% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
20–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 20–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026271934
2027271935
2028272035
2029282035
2030282036

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
JuniataMICHIGAN532024
FowlervilleMICHIGAN512019
PackertownINDIANA462004
North BranchMICHIGAN451999
GreshamWISCONSIN452025
LapeerMICHIGAN442025
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN432025
MukwonagoWISCONSIN432004
CohoctahMICHIGAN422025
KnappMINNESOTA422025
Fall RiverWISCONSIN412025
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN402025
LawrenceMICHIGAN392025
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN382025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN371987
N FreedomWISCONSIN342025
ParisWISCONSIN342025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA332025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN332025
HoltMICHIGAN312025
EdwardsMINNESOTA312024
HatfieldWISCONSIN311998
OmroWISCONSIN312001
Cherry ValILLINOIS302003
Wis RapidsWISCONSIN302023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.