BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+178%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 178% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 21–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+63%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
21–3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 63% by 2029 — from 17 in 2024 to a central estimate of 28 (95% range 21–36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.5%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025272034
2026272035
2027282035
2028282035
2029282136

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bell Oak 2MICHIGAN682023
JuniataMICHIGAN532024
FowlervilleMICHIGAN512019
CohoctahMICHIGAN502024
HoltMICHIGAN482024
PackertownINDIANA462004
North BranchMICHIGAN451999
MukwonagoWISCONSIN432004
ParisWISCONSIN422024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN392024
BrownsvilleWISCONSIN392024
Maple RapidsMICHIGAN382023
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN371987
GreshamWISCONSIN372024
KielWISCONSIN372022
HowardsvilleMICHIGAN342024
LapeerMICHIGAN332024
KnappMINNESOTA332024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN332024
EdwardsMINNESOTA312024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA312024
HatfieldWISCONSIN311998
OmroWISCONSIN312001
CascoWISCONSIN312024
Cherry ValILLINOIS302003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.