BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has surged: up 670% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+670%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has surged in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: up 670% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chipping Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to rise about 18% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 1.2–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.02.2
20271.61.12.2
20281.71.12.2
20291.71.12.2
20301.71.22.3

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BradyNEBRASKA92025
ChambersNEBRASKA92025
ColdwaterKANSAS71972
HanoverKANSAS72025
Liberty 3NEBRASKA72024
BoelusNEBRASKA72022
CoatsKANSAS61973
BartleyNEBRASKA62025
Crescent LkNEBRASKA61992
Wheeler CoNEBRASKA62025
Beloit 2KANSAS52017
BelvidereNEBRASKA52025
SewardNEBRASKA52025
KearneyNEBRASKA52025
TableNEBRASKA52025
HollenbergKANSAS42025
SumnerNEBRASKA42025
PetersburgNEBRASKA42025
OcontoNEBRASKA41978
NenzelNEBRASKA42025
HamptonNEBRASKA42025
WeinertTEXAS41971
MertzonTEXAS42010
SilverTEXAS42011
AshlandKANSAS32001

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.