BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-62%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Chipping Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.40Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±274.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 70% by 2030 — from 0.23 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.40 (95% range 0.00–0.91). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±274.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.390.000.91
20270.390.000.91
20280.390.000.91
20290.400.000.91
20300.400.000.91

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FeltOKLAHOMA112015
Cone MtnCOLORADO102018
ElbertCOLORADO92025
EllicottCOLORADO72016
TimpasCOLORADO62006
CrawfordNEBRASKA52024
GilpinCOLORADO42023
Kiowa 2COLORADO42025
AgateNEBRASKA41990
LingleWYOMING41985
CheyenneWYOMING42011
Pine BluffWYOMING41998
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA32025
KiowaCOLORADO22005
VillegreenCOLORADO22023
Arsenal 2COLORADO22025
ChugwaterWYOMING22024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO11999
Adams Co.COLORADO12015
TrincheraCOLORADO12022
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
ArsenalCOLORADO12010
PaxtonNEBRASKA12015
BereaNEBRASKA12012
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.