BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-69%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 69% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Chipping Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±277.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 100% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.41 (95% range 0.00–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±277.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.000.92
20260.400.000.92
20270.410.000.92
20280.410.000.93
20290.410.000.93

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FeltOKLAHOMA112015
Cone MtnCOLORADO102018
ElbertCOLORADO82024
EllicottCOLORADO72016
TimpasCOLORADO62006
CrawfordNEBRASKA52024
Pine RidgeNEBRASKA52023
GilpinCOLORADO42023
AgateNEBRASKA41990
LingleWYOMING41985
CheyenneWYOMING42011
Pine BluffWYOMING41998
KiowaCOLORADO22005
VillegreenCOLORADO22023
ChugwaterWYOMING22024
Wildhorse LCOLORADO11999
Adams Co.COLORADO12015
TrincheraCOLORADO12022
Kiowa 2COLORADO12023
NinaviewCOLORADO12024
ArsenalCOLORADO12010
PaxtonNEBRASKA12015
BereaNEBRASKA12012
FarleyNEW-MEXICO12024
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11976

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.