BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
106Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.3–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+89%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±115.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 89% by 2030 — from 2.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 1.3–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±115.9%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.21.37.1
20274.21.37.1
20284.21.37.2
20294.31.37.2
20304.31.37.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA602015
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA582004
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA442015
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA362015
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA302012
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA292017
HampshireWYOMING282001
Maynard CouleeMONTANA262025
MoskeeWYOMING252001
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA232024
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA212013
Moskee 3WYOMING212025
Reed PointMONTANA202025
SundanceWYOMING202025
BillWYOMING202001
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA191991
JordanMONTANA142024
Soda WellWYOMING92025
HighlightWYOMING92007
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA82025
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA82025
CusterMONTANA62019
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA62013
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA62021
UptonWYOMING62012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.