BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has edged down: down 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
103Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.5–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 65% by 2029 — from 2.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 1.5–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.41.57.3
20264.41.57.3
20274.41.57.3
20284.41.57.3
20294.41.57.3

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Eagle ButteSOUTH-DAKOTA602015
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA582004
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA442015
IsabelSOUTH-DAKOTA362015
Silver CitySOUTH-DAKOTA302012
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA292017
HampshireWYOMING282001
Maynard CouleeMONTANA272024
SundanceWYOMING262024
MoskeeWYOMING252001
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA232024
RochfordSOUTH-DAKOTA222018
Hill CitySOUTH-DAKOTA212013
BillWYOMING202001
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA191991
Moskee 3WYOMING182024
JordanMONTANA142024
MeadowdaleWYOMING121995
RecluseWYOMING102024
HighlightWYOMING92007
Reed PointMONTANA82024
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA72022
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA72024
Soda WellWYOMING72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.