BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+34%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
152Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+13%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
13–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to rise about 13% by 2029 — from 14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 16 (95% range 13–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025161319
2026161319
2027161319
2028161319
2029161319

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS522024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE482021
BiddefordMAINE452019
GlenNEW-HAMPSHIRE402024
HermonMAINE382019
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS382016
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE362024
Old ForgeNEW-YORK332006
WestbrookMAINE322024
ManchesterMAINE321995
CharlestonMAINE322019
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS322024
NorthfieldMAINE311981
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE312024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE292024
DannemoraNEW-YORK292006
BrooksMAINE282019
Turner 2MAINE272024
MarlboroVERMONT272024
Blue Ridge SNEW-YORK262010
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK261975
LempsterNEW-HAMPSHIRE252024
East TroyMAINE232019
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE232024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT222024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.