BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968
86Routes In Region
58Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029
27Projected 2029 index
22–3195% range
±10%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
2025262231
2026262231
2027262231
2028272231
2029272231

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK962024
NaplesNEW-YORK622024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK592023
MacdougallNEW-YORK572024
OrleansNEW-YORK542024
North EastonNEW-YORK412024
HamburgNEW-YORK392024
HiramOHIO382021
PenfieldNEW-YORK372024
LucerneOHIO372024
CayugaNEW-YORK352024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA342023
RushvilleNEW-YORK322024
West SenecaNEW-YORK322004
ByronNEW-YORK312024
WaylandOHIO292017
N WilmurtNEW-YORK281998
PittsfieldOHIO282024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA281979
CastileNEW-YORK272024
BranchportNEW-YORK262024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK262024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK252024
ShaftsburyVERMONT252024
NashvilleNEW-YORK242018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.