BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+74%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±8.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 24 in 2025 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±8.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026262231
2027262231
2028262231
2029272231
2030272231

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK812025
MacdougallNEW-YORK732025
OrleansNEW-YORK622025
North EastonNEW-YORK512025
NaplesNEW-YORK452025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK422025
CastileNEW-YORK412025
LucerneOHIO412025
HamburgNEW-YORK342025
BristolVERMONT342025
Harris HillNEW-YORK332025
West SenecaNEW-YORK322004
ByronNEW-YORK312025
WaylandOHIO292017
PenfieldNEW-YORK282025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK281998
PittsfieldOHIO282024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA281979
LattasburgOHIO272025
GhentNEW-YORK262025
BranchportNEW-YORK262024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK252025
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK252025
Valley CityOHIO252025
CayugaNEW-YORK242025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.