BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chipping Sparrow has risen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chipping Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
22–3195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 15% by 2029 — from 23 in 2024 to a central estimate of 27 (95% range 22–31). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025262231
2026262231
2027262231
2028272231
2029272231

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK962024
NaplesNEW-YORK622024
E YoungstownNEW-YORK592023
MacdougallNEW-YORK572024
OrleansNEW-YORK542024
North EastonNEW-YORK412024
HamburgNEW-YORK392024
HiramOHIO382021
PenfieldNEW-YORK372024
LucerneOHIO372024
CayugaNEW-YORK352024
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA342023
RushvilleNEW-YORK322024
West SenecaNEW-YORK322004
ByronNEW-YORK312024
WaylandOHIO292017
N WilmurtNEW-YORK281998
PittsfieldOHIO282024
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA281979
CastileNEW-YORK272024
BranchportNEW-YORK262024
ParishvilleNEW-YORK262024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK252024
ShaftsburyVERMONT252024
NashvilleNEW-YORK242018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.