BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chipping Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 0% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+0%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 12–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.5%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025181223
2026181223
2027181223
2028181223
2029181223

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SkeelsMICHIGAN532015
CunardMICHIGAN492021
BagleyMINNESOTA442006
Land O LakesWISCONSIN362016
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN332024
WausaukeeWISCONSIN332024
IrmaWISCONSIN322024
Iron RiverWISCONSIN302024
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN292024
Cedar RunMICHIGAN291999
DebsMINNESOTA292024
GooseneckMICHIGAN282010
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN272019
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN272004
Union TwpWISCONSIN272024
JordanMINNESOTA262023
Amnicon FallsWISCONSIN252024
IronsMICHIGAN241989
Crane LakeMINNESOTA242024
Pine RiverMINNESOTA232024
Bear LakeMICHIGAN222024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN222024
HerronMICHIGAN222016
Maple GroveMICHIGAN212024
OntonagonMICHIGAN202019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.