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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chipping Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
127Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Chipping Sparrow In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 12–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
12–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 36% by 2030 — from 13 in 2025 to a central estimate of 17 (95% range 12–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54.3%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026171223
2027171223
2028171223
2029171223
2030171223

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Chipping Sparrow in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SkeelsMICHIGAN532015
CunardMICHIGAN492021
BagleyMINNESOTA442006
Land O LakesWISCONSIN362016
BashawWISCONSIN362025
Eagle RiverWISCONSIN322025
DebsMINNESOTA302025
Cedar RunMICHIGAN291999
GooseneckMICHIGAN282010
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN272019
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN272004
MayfieldMICHIGAN262025
Land O' Lakes 2WISCONSIN262025
Pleasant Valley 2MICHIGAN252025
IronsMICHIGAN241989
Hart LakeMINNESOTA242025
Crane LakeMINNESOTA242025
Iron RiverWISCONSIN242025
PhillipsWISCONSIN242025
Bear LakeMICHIGAN222025
HarriettaMICHIGAN222025
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN222024
HerronMICHIGAN222016
WausaukeeWISCONSIN212025
OntonagonMICHIGAN202019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.