BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-39%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 2.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+55%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 55% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.6 (95% range 2.5–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.72.611
20276.72.611
20286.62.611
20296.62.511
20306.62.511

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CarlisleLOUISIANA251988
Baton RougeLOUISIANA252025
EnglandARKANSAS222025
RamahLOUISIANA222025
CommerceMISSISSIPPI221993
WhittonARKANSAS181991
KeystoneLOUISIANA172013
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI171994
KraemerLOUISIANA112025
TchulaMISSISSIPPI111975
RoselandLOUISIANA92025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA92025
BelairLOUISIANA82025
Port AllenLOUISIANA82024
GonzalesLOUISIANA72019
DellARKANSAS62010
Morgan CityLOUISIANA61986
GibsonLOUISIANA62019
BerwickLOUISIANA62018
Morgan CityLOUISIANA62022
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE62022
EudoraARKANSAS52010
SaffellARKANSAS52019
MaynardARKANSAS52025
FrogmoreLOUISIANA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.