BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-35%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
68Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 2.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.8 (95% range 2.8–11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.92.911
20266.92.911
20276.92.811
20286.82.811
20296.82.811

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Baton RougeLOUISIANA442024
CarlisleLOUISIANA251988
CommerceMISSISSIPPI221993
WhittonARKANSAS181991
KeystoneLOUISIANA172013
River RoadLOUISIANA172024
Tchula 2MISSISSIPPI171994
MayflowerLOUISIANA112024
TchulaMISSISSIPPI111975
EnglandARKANSAS102024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA102024
Port AllenLOUISIANA82024
GonzalesLOUISIANA72019
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA72024
Tchula 3MISSISSIPPI72024
DellARKANSAS62010
Morgan CityLOUISIANA61986
RoselandLOUISIANA62024
GibsonLOUISIANA62019
FrogmoreLOUISIANA62024
BerwickLOUISIANA62018
Morgan CityLOUISIANA62022
Pawpaw 2TENNESSEE62022
EudoraARKANSAS52010
SaffellARKANSAS52019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.