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Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-71%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
108Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 0.00–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.90.006.8
20262.80.006.6
20272.60.006.5
20282.50.006.3
20292.30.006.2

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Chimney Swift in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
NatchitochesLOUISIANA341991
EastonLOUISIANA311990
ChandlerTEXAS232004
ManyLOUISIANA181992
GoodwaterOKLAHOMA172021
OakdaleLOUISIANA161994
MassardARKANSAS132022
CypressLOUISIANA131987
Pine PrairieLOUISIANA131997
McalesterOKLAHOMA121991
BlakelyARKANSAS111999
Fort PolkLOUISIANA111975
De QuincyLOUISIANA112021
EastonTEXAS92013
Mt. SelmanTEXAS92024
Smyrna 2TEXAS92023
PushmatahaOKLAHOMA82023
Lance Rosier BithTEXAS82017
CrowsARKANSAS71991
PoyenARKANSAS72007
SpringhillARKANSAS72022
Magazine MtnARKANSAS72019
CartervilleLOUISIANA71992
CheniereLOUISIANA72024
CaledoniaTEXAS72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.