BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
157Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±47.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±47.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.41.45.4
20263.41.45.4
20273.31.35.3
20283.31.35.3
20293.21.25.3

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HamtramckMICHIGAN351984
BismarkOHIO281995
NapoleonOHIO202024
OmroWISCONSIN162001
PackertownINDIANA152004
KielWISCONSIN152022
Stevens PtWISCONSIN142013
ManitowocWISCONSIN132023
N FreedomWISCONSIN122024
New TroyMICHIGAN112024
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN112024
MontereyMICHIGAN102024
GraytownOHIO101984
CochraneWISCONSIN102024
GrimmsWISCONSIN102021
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA92021
VickeryOHIO92023
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN92024
BeldingMICHIGAN82003
HomerMICHIGAN82021
StratfordWISCONSIN82024
Fall RiverWISCONSIN82024
GreshamWISCONSIN82024
MukwonagoWISCONSIN82004
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.