BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition has declined: down 41% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-41%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
158Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.2 (95% range 1.2–5.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.41.45.4
20273.31.35.3
20283.31.35.3
20293.21.25.2
20303.21.25.2

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HamtramckMICHIGAN351984
BismarkOHIO281995
GreshamWISCONSIN192025
MinnetonkaMINNESOTA172025
OmroWISCONSIN162001
PackertownINDIANA152004
Stevens PtWISCONSIN142013
Mukwonago 2WISCONSIN142025
ManitowocWISCONSIN132023
NapoleonOHIO122025
HollandWISCONSIN122025
New TroyMICHIGAN112024
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN112025
PardeevilleWISCONSIN112025
Pt WashingtnWISCONSIN112024
MontereyMICHIGAN102024
GraytownOHIO101984
GrimmsWISCONSIN102021
KielWISCONSIN102025
HoltMICHIGAN92025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA92021
VickeryOHIO92023
N FreedomWISCONSIN92025
HebronWISCONSIN92025
NashvilleMICHIGAN82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.