BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-77%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
273Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Chimney Swift In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.7 (95% range 0.00–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.296.7
20263.30.106.5
20273.10.006.3
20282.90.006.1
20292.70.005.9

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DunlapOHIO771988
TecumsehOHIO701982
ItascaILLINOIS642024
GaryINDIANA601999
HarveysburgOHIO351996
WilmingtonOHIO351996
DesmoinesIOWA331979
Sni MillsMISSOURI331990
BeaucoupILLINOIS312024
WestervilleOHIO301985
GildehouseMISSOURI291989
TroyOHIO281996
St MorganILLINOIS232022
DudleyvilleILLINOIS222024
HamiltonMISSOURI221985
BotkinsOHIO202019
W CarrolltonOHIO202015
West ElktonOHIO182012
PlainfieldINDIANA171999
MuncieINDIANA161997
AndersonINDIANA152024
MaplewoodINDIANA152021
Cedar ValleyIOWA151997
MiddletownINDIANA142024
ConcordILLINOIS132024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.