BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Chimney Swift In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-50%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Chimney Swift has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Chimney Swift In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 34% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 34% by 2028 — from 0.11 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.150.000.41
20250.150.000.40
20260.150.000.40
20270.150.000.40
20280.140.000.40

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TwichellTEXAS72018
BurlingtonCOLORADO62014
RuletonKANSAS61995
FeltOKLAHOMA61988
PostTEXAS42019
LamesaTEXAS42023
FlemingCOLORADO32023
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
BenkelmanNEBRASKA32017
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32008
ChanningTEXAS31994
PanhandleTEXAS32022
AmherstCOLORADO22021
JulesburgCOLORADO22019
WallaceKANSAS22000
LeotiKANSAS22001
DaltonNEBRASKA22014
KimballNEBRASKA22022
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22015
HookerOKLAHOMA22019
CircleTEXAS22019
ClaytonvilleTEXAS21995
FrionaTEXAS22022
WaverlyCOLORADO12018
Fort MorganCOLORADO12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.