BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Chimney Swift In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie has declined: down 37% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-37%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Chimney Swift In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±31.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 0.22 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±31.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.41
20270.150.000.40
20280.150.000.40
20290.150.000.40
20300.140.000.40

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Chimney Swift in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KimballNEBRASKA112025
TwichellTEXAS72018
BurlingtonCOLORADO62014
RuletonKANSAS61995
FeltOKLAHOMA61988
FlemingCOLORADO42025
PostTEXAS42019
LamesaTEXAS42023
PaxtonNEBRASKA32016
BenkelmanNEBRASKA32017
Murray LakeNEBRASKA32008
ChanningTEXAS31994
PanhandleTEXAS32022
AmherstCOLORADO22021
JulesburgCOLORADO22019
WallaceKANSAS22000
LeotiKANSAS22001
Clear LakeOKLAHOMA22015
HookerOKLAHOMA22019
CircleTEXAS22019
ClaytonvilleTEXAS21995
FrionaTEXAS22022
WaverlyCOLORADO12018
Fort MorganCOLORADO12023
FlaglerCOLORADO12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.