BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cerulean Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-22%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
240Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Cerulean Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 0.51 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.73 (95% range 0.22–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.730.221.2
20270.730.221.2
20280.730.221.2
20290.730.221.2
20300.730.221.2

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front RoyalVIRGINIA272025
Elk ValleyTENNESSEE152025
Tick RidgeOHIO132019
Shawnee S.F.OHIO112000
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA112021
Red BankTENNESSEE91978
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA92025
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY81978
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO82019
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA82025
Tar HollowOHIO72024
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA72024
Green RidgeMARYLAND62025
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY51997
GeslingKENTUCKY51972
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY52024
OldtownMARYLAND52025
Pike S.F.OHIO52013
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA51997
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA52024
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA52022
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA52022
RinggoldWEST-VIRGINIA52025
KehoeKENTUCKY41992
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.