BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
239Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.75 (95% range 0.24–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.24–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.75 (95% range 0.24–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.750.241.3
20260.750.241.3
20270.750.241.3
20280.750.241.3
20290.750.241.3

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Front RoyalVIRGINIA242024
Tick RidgeOHIO132019
Strange CrkWEST-VIRGINIA122024
Shawnee S.F.OHIO112000
StollingsWEST-VIRGINIA112021
Red BankTENNESSEE91978
Pine RidgeKENTUCKY81978
Shawnee S.F. 2OHIO82019
Tar HollowOHIO72024
YawkeyWEST-VIRGINIA72024
OldtownMARYLAND62024
LandisburgPENNSYLVANIA62024
Pippa PassesKENTUCKY51997
GeslingKENTUCKY51972
Beattyville 2KENTUCKY52024
Pike S.F.OHIO52013
CarsonvillePENNSYLVANIA51997
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA52024
BreedenWEST-VIRGINIA52024
WashburnWEST-VIRGINIA52022
Josephs MillWEST-VIRGINIA52022
KehoeKENTUCKY41992
Kehoe 2KENTUCKY42021
DellOHIO42019
RoulettePENNSYLVANIA42021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.