BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

-23%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±73.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±73.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.04
20260.010.000.04
20270.010.000.04
20280.010.000.04
20290.010.000.04

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovelacevileKENTUCKY31990
Holly SpringsMISSISSIPPI22014
NewsomsVIRGINIA21997
St FlorianALABAMA11997
Grove HillALABAMA11988
CarrolltonALABAMA11996
VernonALABAMA11997
ShilohKENTUCKY11994
CorinthMISSISSIPPI12024
TupeloMISSISSIPPI11987
DortchesNORTH-CAROLINA11992
Big SandyTENNESSEE11966
MansfieldTENNESSEE12001
SweetlipsTENNESSEE11994
SilertonTENNESSEE11991
TrentonTENNESSEE11966

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.