BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-77%Since 1972
4Routes In Region
20Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cerulean Warbler has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029
0.05Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1595% range
±83.3%Backtest error
19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.060.000.16
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.050.000.15
20290.050.000.15

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
BardwellKENTUCKY21979
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE11977
PawpawTENNESSEE11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.