BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has collapsed: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-77%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cerulean Warbler has collapsed in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: down 77% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Cerulean Warbler In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.16
20260.060.000.16
20270.060.000.16
20280.050.000.15
20290.050.000.15

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BardwellKENTUCKY21979
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS12024
TiptonvilleTENNESSEE11977
PawpawTENNESSEE11977

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.