BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has fallen sharply: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-71%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
20YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cerulean Warbler has fallen sharply in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 71% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±182.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.12). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.020.000.12
20250.020.000.12
20260.020.000.12
20270.010.000.12
20280.010.000.12

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
StarkARKANSAS41968
RamseyARKANSAS11973
CrowsARKANSAS11968
PoyenARKANSAS11974
HollywoodARKANSAS11995
BlakelyARKANSAS11972
SimsARKANSAS12022
Hatfield 2ARKANSAS12023
Fort PolkLOUISIANA11971
Big CedarOKLAHOMA12003
BethelOKLAHOMA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.