BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cerulean Warbler In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Cerulean Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-80%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cerulean Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±53.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±53.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.000.000.03
20250.000.000.03
20260.000.000.03
20270.000.000.03
20280.000.000.03

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cerulean Warbler in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GildehouseMISSOURI31989
MiddletownINDIANA21990
AshleyOHIO22011
AthensvilleILLINOIS11973
BelleviewILLINOIS12023
Mascoutah LkILLINOIS11991
St MorganILLINOIS12021
OlneyILLINOIS11984
FloraILLINOIS11979
MonticelloINDIANA11985
GalvestonINDIANA12010
WabashINDIANA12009
ShelbyvilleINDIANA11986
BrookvilleINDIANA11974
WallaceINDIANA12023
OhioMISSOURI11987
RockinghamMISSOURI11977
No KentonOHIO11998
WestervilleOHIO11983
West ElktonOHIO11996
HarveysburgOHIO11995
WilmingtonOHIO11966
NewportOHIO11969
Ash RidgeOHIO11998
W CarrolltonOHIO11993

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.