Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Cerulean Warbler In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
Cerulean Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
-59%Since 1968
38Routes In Region
57Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Cerulean Warbler has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1968.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Cerulean Warbler in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±118.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
n/aChange by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1895% range
±118.9%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2026 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2027 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2028 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
| 2029 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.18 |
Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain
| Catskills | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1995 |
| Churchville | NEW-YORK | 2 | 2006 |
| N Victory | NEW-YORK | 2 | 1971 |
| Garrettsvile | OHIO | 2 | 1991 |
| Strongsville | OHIO | 2 | 1987 |
| Highland | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1984 |
| W Shokan | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2001 |
| Ghent | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2008 |
| Romulus | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1989 |
| Macdougall | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2004 |
| Canadice L | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2004 |
| Cherry Hill | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1988 |
| E Youngstown | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2019 |
| Byron | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1989 |
| N Victory 2 | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2008 |
| Cicero Ctr | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1987 |
| Alder Creek | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1987 |
| N Wilmurt | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1991 |
| Clinton | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1987 |
| Naples | NEW-YORK | 1 | 1981 |
| Philadelphia | NEW-YORK | 1 | 2024 |
| Pittsfield | OHIO | 1 | 2022 |
| Wayland | OHIO | 1 | 2009 |
| Middlefield | OHIO | 1 | 1988 |
| Lenox | OHIO | 1 | 2015 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.