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Species · Texas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cave Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Texas has surged: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+351%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
140Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cave Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cave Swallow has surged in Texas: up 351% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Cave Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 372% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+372%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.5–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±286.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 372% by 2030 — from 1.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.4 (95% range 2.5–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±286.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20268.22.314
20278.32.414
20288.32.414
20298.42.514
20308.42.514

Cave Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Encinal36820101980
Zapata19419871987
Indianola17520242002
Decatur7020192018
La Pryor6320052001
Randado5420251984
Lone Oak5320191990
Loyola Beach5320091994
Laredo5220231994
Hinkles Fer5020192006
Millett4320121995
Raymondville4220252004
Albany3520151994
Hobson3420231994
El Indio3020071994
Guerra2620251988
Lag Atascosa2420251995
San Saba2320251988
Glen Rose2220232023
Hondo2120251990
Petronila2020242006
Catarina2020101980
Post2020192007
Encinal 22020252011
Thornton 21920102003

Cave Swallow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.