BirdAnalyst
Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cave Swallow Population Trend in Texas

All statesAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Texas has surged: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

+410%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Cave Swallow Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cave Swallow has surged in Texas: up 410% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

Cave Swallow Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+111%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.4–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±222.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Texas is projected to rise about 111% by 2029 — from 4.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.0 (95% range 3.4–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±222.4%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.73.114
20268.83.214
20278.93.214
20288.93.315
20299.03.415

Cave Swallow Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Encinal36820101980
Zapata19419871987
Indianola17520242002
Guerra16920181988
Pidcoke 211220242023
Randado10720241984
Decatur7020192018
La Pryor6320052001
Lone Oak5320191990
Loyola Beach5320091994
Laredo5220231994
Hinkles Fer5020192006
Adamsville4320192008
Millett4320121995
Raymondville4120242004
Encinal 23920242011
Albany3520151994
Hobson3420231994
Three Rivers3320221994
Lag Atascosa3120241995
El Indio3020071994
Brite3020241994
San Saba2520241988
Glen Rose2220232023
Petronila2020242006

Cave Swallow Population Trend in Other States

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Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.