BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cave Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has increased: up 43% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+43%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Cave Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 2.1–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±336.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.1–2395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±336.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 2.1–23). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±336.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025121.523
2026121.623
2027121.823
2028132.023
2029132.123

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaTEXAS1752024
Loyola BeachTEXAS532009
RichardLOUISIANA512024
Hinkles FerTEXAS502019
EstherLOUISIANA362024
Lag AtascosaTEXAS312024
Forked IslandLOUISIANA302019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA242018
PetronilaTEXAS202024
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA182023
Bayside 2TEXAS152004
Rock IslandTEXAS82024
BaysideTEXAS82010
McfaddinTEXAS82016
Port AcresTEXAS72023
ChinquapinTEXAS52019
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS32023
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
Bayside 3TEXAS22018
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22016
HackberryLOUISIANA12012
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA12011
WinnieTEXAS12024
DanburyTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.