BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cave Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1996.

+24%Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
31YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Cave Swallow In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 371% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.47–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±410%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+371%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.47–2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±410%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to rise about 371% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 11 (95% range 0.47–22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±410%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19942030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026110.0322
2027110.1422
2028110.2522
2029110.3622
2030110.4722

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
IndianolaTEXAS1752024
Loyola BeachTEXAS532009
RichardLOUISIANA512024
Hinkles FerTEXAS502019
WoodlawnLOUISIANA242018
Lag AtascosaTEXAS242025
EstherLOUISIANA202025
PetronilaTEXAS202024
Bayside 2TEXAS152004
BaysideTEXAS82010
McfaddinTEXAS82016
Port AcresTEXAS72023
ChinquapinTEXAS52019
Moon LakeTEXAS32011
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS32023
KaplanLOUISIANA22023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA22025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA22025
Rock IslandTEXAS22025
Bayside 3TEXAS22018
Goliad PrairieTEXAS22016
HackberryLOUISIANA12012
Ltl Chenier 2LOUISIANA12011
Forked IslandLOUISIANA12025
Vinton 2LOUISIANA12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.