BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cave Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

+2%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Cave Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 0.00–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+73%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±237.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 73% by 2029 — from 19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 33 (95% range 0.00–70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±237.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025340.0071
2026340.0071
2027330.0071
2028330.0070
2029330.0070

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EncinalTEXAS3682010
ZapataTEXAS1941987
GuerraTEXAS1692018
RandadoTEXAS1072024
La PryorTEXAS632005
LaredoTEXAS522023
MillettTEXAS432012
RaymondvilleTEXAS412024
Encinal 2TEXAS392024
El IndioTEXAS302007
CatarinaTEXAS202010
HondoTEXAS182024
ProgresoTEXAS152008
Millett 2TEXAS152024
SejitaTEXAS122014
HeidelbergTEXAS102022
Mirando CityTEXAS62023
George WestTEXAS62024
Catarina 2TEXAS62014
Pedro CreekTEXAS62005
San YgnacioTEXAS51982
RachalTEXAS42023
Agua NuevaTEXAS12018
KingsvilleTEXAS12023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS12013

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.