BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cave Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-2%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands. See the full index history below.

Cave Swallow In Tamaulipan Brushlands Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 0.00–68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+98%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±182%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to rise about 98% by 2030 — from 15 in 2025 to a central estimate of 30 (95% range 0.00–68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±182%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026320.0069
2027310.0069
2028310.0068
2029310.0068
2030300.0068

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EncinalTEXAS3682010
ZapataTEXAS1941987
La PryorTEXAS632005
RandadoTEXAS542025
LaredoTEXAS522023
MillettTEXAS432012
RaymondvilleTEXAS422025
El IndioTEXAS302007
GuerraTEXAS262025
HondoTEXAS212025
CatarinaTEXAS202010
Encinal 2TEXAS202025
ProgresoTEXAS152008
Millett 2TEXAS152024
SejitaTEXAS122014
HeidelbergTEXAS102022
Mirando CityTEXAS62023
Catarina 2TEXAS62014
Pedro CreekTEXAS62005
San YgnacioTEXAS51982
RachalTEXAS42023
Cavasara Cr.TEXAS42025
Agua NuevaTEXAS12018
KingsvilleTEXAS12023
George WestTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.