BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cave Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: down 3% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

-3%Since 1984TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
37YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Cave Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 15× by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1709.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

15×Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±1709.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 15× by 2030 — from 0.19 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.9 (95% range 0.00–6.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1709.9%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.005.8
20272.70.005.9
20282.80.005.9
20292.80.006.0
20302.90.006.0

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Delaware CrkTEXAS172009
GirvinTEXAS112017
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS81999
PresidioTEXAS42021
MarathonTEXAS42025
OzonaTEXAS32022
Ft. DavisTEXAS32012
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
ComstockTEXAS22019
AltudaTEXAS22023
Casa PiedraTEXAS22025
Coyanda DrawTEXAS21994
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
Sierra BlancTEXAS22019
MarfaTEXAS22017
PinonNEW-MEXICO12011
LongfellowTEXAS12024
Devils R CynTEXAS12016
Ft. StocktonTEXAS12025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.