BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cave Swallow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

+70%Since 1984
20Routes In Region
36Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Cave Swallow has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 70% on the route-weighted index since 1984.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 30× by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.1 (95% range 0.09–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±1316.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

30×Change by 2029
3.1Projected 2029 index
0.09–6.295% range
±1316.1%Backtest error
19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20252.90.006.0
20263.00.006.0
20273.00.006.1
20283.10.046.1
20293.10.096.2

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cave Swallow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Delaware CrkTEXAS172009
GirvinTEXAS112017
Ft. StocktonTEXAS82023
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS81999
PresidioTEXAS42021
OzonaTEXAS32022
Ft. DavisTEXAS32012
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS32019
MesillaNEW-MEXICO22000
ComstockTEXAS22019
AltudaTEXAS22023
Coyanda DrawTEXAS21994
ToyahvaleTEXAS22024
Sierra BlancTEXAS22019
MarfaTEXAS22017
PinonNEW-MEXICO12011
LongfellowTEXAS12024
Casa PiedraTEXAS12012
Devils R CynTEXAS12016
MarathonTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.