BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Sparrow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGrassland birds

Cassin's Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-67%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Sparrow has fallen sharply in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Cassin's Sparrow In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.65 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±734.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.65Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±734.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.65 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±734.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.640.001.7
20260.640.001.7
20270.650.001.7
20280.650.001.7
20290.650.001.7

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KatyTEXAS112011
IndianolaTEXAS82011
San PedroTEXAS62018
BaysideTEXAS41996
Bayside 2TEXAS42001
Goliad PrairieTEXAS42015
Lag AtascosaTEXAS32013
Loyola BeachTEXAS32009
PetronilaTEXAS22014
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS12024
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS12017
McfaddinTEXAS12013
Padre Island PaisTEXAS12015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.