BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Kingbird has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.40.006.9
20263.30.006.9
20273.30.006.8
20283.20.006.8
20293.20.006.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO392017
ValentineTEXAS311987
Ft. DavisTEXAS202023
ShafterTEXAS161985
CornudasTEXAS162015
Van HornTEXAS122024
DemingNEW-MEXICO111974
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO102024
PinonNEW-MEXICO102024
OzonaTEXAS92003
Red RockNEW-MEXICO82023
Delaware CrkTEXAS82014
Bear MtnTEXAS82024
Sierra BlancTEXAS72024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO62024
PresidioTEXAS62012
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS52023
MarathonTEXAS42023
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO32024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32011
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32008
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
GageNEW-MEXICO22022
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.