BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970
45Routes In Region
56Years

Notable Signals

long arc declinecomputed index

Cassin's Kingbird has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 40% by 2029 — from 2.3 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.2 (95% range 0.00–6.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+40%Change by 2029
3.2Projected 2029 index
0.00–6.795% range
±66.6%Backtest error
19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20253.40.006.9
20263.30.006.9
20273.30.006.8
20283.20.006.8
20293.20.006.7

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO392017
ValentineTEXAS311987
Ft. DavisTEXAS202023
ShafterTEXAS161985
CornudasTEXAS162015
Van HornTEXAS122024
DemingNEW-MEXICO111974
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO102024
PinonNEW-MEXICO102024
OzonaTEXAS92003
Red RockNEW-MEXICO82023
Delaware CrkTEXAS82014
Bear MtnTEXAS82024
Sierra BlancTEXAS72024
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO62024
PresidioTEXAS62012
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS52023
MarathonTEXAS42023
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO32024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32011
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32008
RoswellNEW-MEXICO22023
GageNEW-MEXICO22022
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.