BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-56%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Kingbird has fallen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Kingbird In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–6.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.00–6.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.20.006.8
20273.20.006.7
20283.10.006.7
20293.10.006.6
20303.00.006.6

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Capitan Mtn.NEW-MEXICO392017
ValentineTEXAS311987
ShafterTEXAS161985
CornudasTEXAS162015
MarfaTEXAS162025
CloudcroftNEW-MEXICO122025
DemingNEW-MEXICO111974
PinonNEW-MEXICO102024
OzonaTEXAS92003
Bear MtnTEXAS92025
Delaware CrkTEXAS82014
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO72025
Ft. DavisTEXAS72025
PresidioTEXAS62012
ToyahvaleTEXAS62025
Sierra BlancTEXAS62025
Van HornTEXAS62025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO32025
QueenNEW-MEXICO32021
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO32024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO32011
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS32008
GageNEW-MEXICO22022
RodeoNEW-MEXICO22022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.