BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-35%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.4 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.30.0014
20265.10.0014
20274.80.0014
20284.60.0013
20294.40.0013

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Peña BlancaARIZONA402024
Skull ValleyARIZONA372024
PatagoniaARIZONA342024
ReserveNEW-MEXICO312023
Happy JackARIZONA172024
Mormon LakeARIZONA151974
SunizonaARIZONA141997
Sunizona 2ARIZONA142024
DragoonARIZONA132009
PomereneARIZONA112024
RuckerARIZONA112009
PinetopARIZONA102022
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO92024
Forest LakesARIZONA82024
PortalARIZONA82024
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO82024
Clay SpringARIZONA72024
AmadoARIZONA62023
BlueARIZONA41991
FlagstaffARIZONA32022
PrescottARIZONA32022
RedingtonARIZONA32023
McnealARIZONA32022
Aztec PeakARIZONA21978
San SimonARIZONA22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.