BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-53%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to fall about 53% by 2030 — from 9.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 0.00–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.40.0014
20275.10.0014
20284.90.0014
20294.70.0014
20304.50.0013

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ReserveNEW-MEXICO472025
Skull ValleyARIZONA372024
PatagoniaARIZONA292025
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA242025
Happy JackARIZONA202025
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA182025
Peña BlancaARIZONA172025
Mormon LakeARIZONA151974
SprucedaleARIZONA152025
SunizonaARIZONA141997
DragoonARIZONA132009
RuckerARIZONA112009
FlagstaffARIZONA102025
Forest LakesARIZONA102025
PinetopARIZONA102022
Sunizona 2ARIZONA102025
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO102025
PomereneARIZONA92025
PortalARIZONA92025
Clay SpringARIZONA72025
WilliamsARIZONA62025
Emory PassNEW-MEXICO62025
AmadoARIZONA52025
BlueARIZONA41991
PrescottARIZONA32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.