BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 34% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-34%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±126.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.52). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±126.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.54
20260.030.000.54
20270.020.000.53
20280.010.000.52
20290.010.000.52

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Imperial DamCALIFORNIA82006
LenwoodCALIFORNIA71980
CimaCALIFORNIA41998
Palo VerdeARIZONA32006
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA31989
Casa GrandeARIZONA22011
Bates WellARIZONA21995
PearblossomCALIFORNIA22016
OatmanARIZONA12006
QuartzsiteARIZONA11974
VicksburgARIZONA11972
FlorenceARIZONA11968
LagunaARIZONA11980
AntaresARIZONA12024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA12023
Cutter 2ARIZONA12016
OnyxCALIFORNIA11980
Valley WellsCALIFORNIA12014
BarstowCALIFORNIA11973
GlamisCALIFORNIA11977
Anza BorregoCALIFORNIA11997
TecopaCALIFORNIA11983
EssexCALIFORNIA11994
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA11973
NelsonNEVADA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.