BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+103%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Kingbird has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 103% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.52–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.52–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±102.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 70% by 2029 — from 0.80 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.52–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±102.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.472.1
20261.30.492.1
20271.30.502.2
20281.30.512.2
20291.40.522.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mica ButteCOLORADO141987
CampoCOLORADO132019
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO132024
FarleyNEW-MEXICO112024
SedanNEW-MEXICO112024
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO112021
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO102021
EdisonCOLORADO61999
GilpinCOLORADO52024
VillegreenCOLORADO42024
RosebudNEW-MEXICO42024
LingleWYOMING42024
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO32024
Frankel CityTEXAS32002
RushCOLORADO22024
HudsonCOLORADO22003
Adams Co.COLORADO22022
CrowleyCOLORADO22022
TrincheraCOLORADO22022
NinaviewCOLORADO22024
EllicottCOLORADO22024
TimpasCOLORADO22019
PritchettCOLORADO22024
Doyle Bridge 2COLORADO22019
Murray LakeNEBRASKA22023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.