BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie has surged: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+163%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
52Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Kingbird has surged in Shortgrass Prairie: up 163% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Kingbird In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.53–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.53–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±90.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.53–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±90.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.492.1
20271.30.502.1
20281.30.512.2
20291.30.522.2
20301.40.532.2

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kiowa 2COLORADO172025
Mica ButteCOLORADO141987
CampoCOLORADO132019
SedanNEW-MEXICO132025
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO112021
FarleyNEW-MEXICO102025
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO102021
MaxwellNEW-MEXICO102025
RosebudNEW-MEXICO82025
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO72025
GilpinCOLORADO62025
EdisonCOLORADO61999
CrawfordNEBRASKA52025
RushCOLORADO42025
VillegreenCOLORADO42024
LingleWYOMING42024
FloydNEW-MEXICO32025
Frankel CityTEXAS32002
HudsonCOLORADO22003
Adams Co.COLORADO22022
CrowleyCOLORADO22022
NinaviewCOLORADO22024
EllicottCOLORADO22025
TimpasCOLORADO22019
PritchettCOLORADO22025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.