BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Kingbird In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies has surged: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+80%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Kingbird has surged in Badlands and Prairies: up 80% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.15Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±227.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies is projected to rise about 54% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.15 (95% range 0.00–0.40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±227.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.39
20260.150.000.39
20270.150.000.39
20280.150.000.39
20290.150.000.40

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Miles CityMONTANA82022
BrandenbergMONTANA52019
MeadowdaleWYOMING51995
RedbirdWYOMING31988
Maynard CouleeMONTANA22024
Chuffey SpringMONTANA22023
Bull Mtn.MONTANA22021
RavenWYOMING22024
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA12001
BillWYOMING12018
SchoonoverWYOMING12001
ArvadaWYOMING12024
RecluseWYOMING12022
SeelyWYOMING11995
UptonWYOMING12021
KayceeWYOMING12024
Gvnt ValleyWYOMING12003
HampshireWYOMING12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.