BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Kingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauAerial insectivores

Cassin's Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has edged down: down 20% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-20%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
100Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Cassin's Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau. See the full index history below.

Cassin's Kingbird In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.04–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.04–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.103.0
20271.50.083.0
20281.50.072.9
20291.50.062.9
20301.50.042.9

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Cassin's Kingbird in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PecosNEW-MEXICO442017
CokedaleCOLORADO392025
La CienegaNEW-MEXICO392022
LudlowCOLORADO352025
WalsenburgCOLORADO302025
MountainairNEW-MEXICO212024
GreasewoodARIZONA192003
La PlataNEW-MEXICO162013
La Plata 2NEW-MEXICO162016
Fence LakeNEW-MEXICO142025
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO122025
SeligmanARIZONA112025
Horse SpgsNEW-MEXICO112025
DulceNEW-MEXICO112025
Salt LakeNEW-MEXICO112001
Peach SpringARIZONA102025
HiteUTAH102025
Black MesaARIZONA91995
Castle ButteARIZONA92025
NageesiNEW-MEXICO92025
AnethUTAH92014
ZeniffARIZONA81984
McgaffeyNEW-MEXICO72025
GallinasNEW-MEXICO72025
Mt. Taylor 2NEW-MEXICO72024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.