BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 5 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Finch In Northern Pacific Rainforest

All regionsNorthern Pacific RainforestGeneralists

Cassin's Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-75%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has fallen sharply in Northern Pacific Rainforest: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Finch In Northern Pacific Rainforest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±193.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.24). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±193.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.25
20260.080.000.25
20270.080.000.25
20280.080.000.25
20290.070.000.24

Routes In Northern Pacific Rainforest

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in Northern Pacific Rainforest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Mt ShastaCALIFORNIA82019
WhiskeytownCALIFORNIA52006
PackwoodWASHINGTON52005
HullvilleCALIFORNIA42003
South Fork MtnCALIFORNIA42022
Warm BeachWASHINGTON41991
DirigioCALIFORNIA32007
Ship Mtn.CALIFORNIA32012
Mt St HelensWASHINGTON32018
Lonesome RdgCALIFORNIA21996
French GulchCALIFORNIA22007
Friday RidgeCALIFORNIA22021
DaytonOREGON21976
Emigrant LkOREGON21985
Emigrant Lake 2OREGON22021
Martins FyCALIFORNIA11999
Junction CtyCALIFORNIA12000
MccloudCALIFORNIA12002
YrekaCALIFORNIA12012
GazelleCALIFORNIA12013
Pilot CreekCALIFORNIA11996
ShellrockOREGON12022
Cool CampOREGON11976
Days CreekOREGON11975
ClearwaterOREGON12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.