BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Cassin's Finch In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Cassin's Finch in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

-61%Since 1981TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
16Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1981.

Cassin's Finch In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±46.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±46.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19772027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.010.000.11
20240.010.000.11
20250.010.000.11
20260.010.000.11
20270.010.000.11

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA42017
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA32010
SavageMONTANA21996
Reed PointMONTANA22015
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA22001
Elk MountainSOUTH-DAKOTA21995
ShawneeWYOMING22004
HighwoodMONTANA11996
Maynard CouleeMONTANA12022
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA11996
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
EnglewoodSOUTH-DAKOTA11997
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12017
SundanceWYOMING12022
DaytonWYOMING11988
MoskeeWYOMING11995

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.