BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Cassin's Finch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Cassin's Finch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has surged: up 444% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+444%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
137Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Cassin's Finch has surged in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: up 443% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Cassin's Finch In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.11–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.11–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±62.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Cassin's Finch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.11–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±62.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.072.8
20271.40.082.8
20281.40.092.8
20291.50.102.8
20301.50.112.8

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Cassin's Finch in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ryan ParkWYOMING202025
Grizzly RdgeUTAH182025
Uintah NfUTAH151994
Red Spur Mtn.UTAH152023
BeckUTAH141987
CastletonUTAH121977
SoapstoneUTAH112025
Heber Mtn.UTAH92025
Bryce CanyonUTAH92025
Cortez 2COLORADO82014
Navajo LakeUTAH82025
Pinos CreekCOLORADO61990
Blackhead PkCOLORADO62021
BeaverUTAH62025
Wasatch NfUTAH62024
NotomUTAH61989
Canyon RimsUTAH62018
ParlinCOLORADO52018
PinonCOLORADO52025
RichfieldUTAH52019
GooseberryUTAH52025
UncompahgreCOLORADO42024
Dolores RivCOLORADO42025
Deadman Rd.COLORADO42025
Fox CreekCOLORADO42025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.