BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Caspian Tern In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieWetland birds

Caspian Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: up 3% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+3%Since 1971
17Routes In Region
42Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Caspian Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 24% by 2028 — from 0.87 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.66 (95% range 0.00–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±202.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2028
0.66Projected 2028 index
0.00–1.595% range
±202.5%Backtest error
19672028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20240.640.001.4
20250.650.001.4
20260.650.001.4
20270.660.001.5
20280.660.001.5

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Caspian Tern in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
L. Atascosa NwrTEXAS122023
Padre Island PaisTEXAS92015
Bayside 3TEXAS82023
Ltl ChenierLOUISIANA72014
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA51973
Grand IsleLOUISIANA42018
IndianolaTEXAS22007
Oyster LakeTEXAS22019
Bayside 2TEXAS22004
McfaddinTEXAS22011
CreoleLOUISIANA11970
Sabine Nwr 2LOUISIANA12015
Lag AtascosaTEXAS12021
PetronilaTEXAS11976
DanburyTEXAS12009
ChinquapinTEXAS12015
BaysideTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.