BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Caspian Tern In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-23%Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
17Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Caspian Tern In Peninsular Florida Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±144.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.30
20260.070.000.30
20270.070.000.29
20280.070.000.29
20290.060.000.29

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottsmoorFLORIDA102021
SandyFLORIDA92008
TamiamiFLORIDA61971
Pleasant GrFLORIDA62009
Shawano 2FLORIDA32007
Merritt IslFLORIDA32005
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22024
FlamingoFLORIDA22000
San AntonioFLORIDA11987
IndiantownFLORIDA12004
Plantation KFLORIDA11970
AndytownFLORIDA11981
ShawanoFLORIDA12001
ClewistonFLORIDA12019
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA12021
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12005
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.