BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Caspian Tern In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaWetland birds

Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida has edged down: down 23% on the route-weighted index since 1976.

-23%Since 1976
17Routes In Region
35Years

Notable Signals

No notable trend signals for Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 0.05 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.29). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±144.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029
0.06Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.2995% range
±144.9%Backtest error
19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20250.070.000.30
20260.070.000.30
20270.070.000.29
20280.070.000.29
20290.060.000.29

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording Caspian Tern in Peninsular Florida.
ScottsmoorFLORIDA102021
SandyFLORIDA92008
TamiamiFLORIDA61971
Pleasant GrFLORIDA62009
Shawano 2FLORIDA32007
Merritt IslFLORIDA32005
Ft LonesomeFLORIDA22024
FlamingoFLORIDA22000
San AntonioFLORIDA11987
IndiantownFLORIDA12004
Plantation KFLORIDA11970
AndytownFLORIDA11981
ShawanoFLORIDA12001
ClewistonFLORIDA12019
Pleasant Grove 2FLORIDA12021
Ridge HarborFLORIDA12005
Merritt Island 2FLORIDA12014

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.