BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie has edged up: up 21% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+21%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 3.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±22.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 35% by 2030 — from 14 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.3 (95% range 3.0–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±22.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.02.715
20279.12.815
20289.22.915
20299.23.016
20309.33.016

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafitteLOUISIANA691991
Vinton 2LOUISIANA632025
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA492025
EstherLOUISIANA432025
Hinkles FerTEXAS402025
Moon Lake 2TEXAS402025
GlencoeLOUISIANA332018
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA292019
VintonLOUISIANA252009
MauriceLOUISIANA232024
Rock IslandTEXAS192025
JuniorLOUISIANA131991
HackberryLOUISIANA132016
RichardLOUISIANA122025
McfaddinTEXAS122016
Port AcresTEXAS112025
WoodlawnLOUISIANA102018
Moon LakeTEXAS102011
KaplanLOUISIANA82023
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA82011
KatyTEXAS82025
BaysideTEXAS82010
Goliad PrairieTEXAS72016
ChinquapinTEXAS62025
Oyster LakeTEXAS62025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.