BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieForest birds

Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie has held roughly steady: up 4% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+4%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 2.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-27%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 27% by 2029 — from 12 in 2024 to a central estimate of 8.8 (95% range 2.6–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20258.52.415
20268.62.415
20278.72.515
20288.72.615
20298.82.615

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LafitteLOUISIANA691991
Vinton 2LOUISIANA652024
EstherLOUISIANA382024
Moon Lake 2TEXAS342024
GlencoeLOUISIANA332018
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA292019
VintonLOUISIANA252009
MauriceLOUISIANA232024
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA232024
Hinkles FerTEXAS202024
Rock IslandTEXAS152024
JuniorLOUISIANA131991
HackberryLOUISIANA132016
McfaddinTEXAS122016
WoodlawnLOUISIANA102018
Moon LakeTEXAS102011
KaplanLOUISIANA82023
RichardLOUISIANA82024
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA82011
BaysideTEXAS82010
Port AcresTEXAS72024
Goliad PrairieTEXAS72016
KatyTEXAS62023
Oyster LakeTEXAS52024
MamouLOUISIANA41982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.