BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+145%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 145% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Southeastern Coastal Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 38 (95% range 33–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±2.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 38 (95% range 33–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±2.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026373242
2027373242
2028383342
2029383343
2030383343

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
LovedaleFLORIDA1202011
PinettaFLORIDA1122025
CowardSOUTH-CAROLINA972025
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA932022
OlusteeFLORIDA902025
Miller XrdsFLORIDA882019
HeadlightGEORGIA872025
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA872022
Broad BranchFLORIDA862025
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA852025
WoodbineGEORGIA832024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA802015
Dowling ParkFLORIDA792025
TarverGEORGIA782025
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA731991
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA732025
DolesGEORGIA722022
Defuniak SprFLORIDA712022
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA702024
BelmontFLORIDA672025
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA662016
CouncilGEORGIA642025
FranklintonLOUISIANA642025
Broad CreekNORTH-CAROLINA642025
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA621982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.