BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 27 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Southeastern Coastal Plain

All regionsSoutheastern Coastal PlainForest birds

Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+147%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
346Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Southeastern Coastal Plain: up 146% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 38 (95% range 33–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
33–4395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 38 (95% range 33–43). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025363241
2026373242
2027373242
2028383342
2029383343

Routes In Southeastern Coastal Plain

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Southeastern Coastal Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Broad BranchFLORIDA1322024
Milltail CrNORTH-CAROLINA1242024
LovedaleFLORIDA1202011
Seminole Hills 2FLORIDA932022
PinettaFLORIDA912024
TarverGEORGIA902024
Miller XrdsFLORIDA882019
Cypress CrNORTH-CAROLINA872022
WoodbineGEORGIA832024
HeadlightGEORGIA832024
Gainestown FerryALABAMA802015
OsceolaFLORIDA802024
Dowling ParkFLORIDA782023
CouncilGEORGIA762024
BostonGEORGIA742024
Myrtle GroveNORTH-CAROLINA742024
ShallotteNORTH-CAROLINA731991
MontagueNORTH-CAROLINA732024
DolesGEORGIA722022
Defuniak SprFLORIDA712022
BettsFLORIDA702024
Dismal SwampNORTH-CAROLINA702024
BelmontFLORIDA662024
Dismal SwampVIRGINIA662016
MashoesNORTH-CAROLINA621982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.