BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 413% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+413%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 413% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 26–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+10%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to rise about 10% by 2030 — from 31 in 2025 to a central estimate of 34 (95% range 26–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026322440
2027332541
2028332541
2029342642
2030342642

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA1022025
KraemerLOUISIANA922025
RamahLOUISIANA802025
RoselandLOUISIANA782025
ShawLOUISIANA702024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA522025
Tensas NwrLOUISIANA482025
South BendARKANSAS442025
MayflowerLOUISIANA442025
CarlisleLOUISIANA411988
BerwickLOUISIANA402018
Rayville 2LOUISIANA392025
ConcordLOUISIANA392019
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI382025
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS372025
GonzalesLOUISIANA352019
SaffellARKANSAS322019
LaroseLOUISIANA321992
River RoadLOUISIANA312025
Baton RougeLOUISIANA312025
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI312025
HughesARKANSAS302025
BelairLOUISIANA302025
BrousvilleLOUISIANA292025
TransylvaniaLOUISIANA292025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.