BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 26 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

All regionsMississippi Alluvial ValleyForest birds

Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley has surged: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+368%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
73Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Mississippi Alluvial Valley: up 368% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Carolina Wren In Mississippi Alluvial Valley Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 34 (95% range 26–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
26–4295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 34 (95% range 26–42). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025322440
2026322440
2027332541
2028332541
2029342642

Routes In Mississippi Alluvial Valley

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Mississippi Alluvial Valley.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AtchafalayaLOUISIANA1212024
KraemerLOUISIANA1152024
RamahLOUISIANA962024
ShawLOUISIANA702024
RoselandLOUISIANA672024
Rayville 2LOUISIANA502024
MayflowerLOUISIANA462024
CarlisleLOUISIANA411988
BerwickLOUISIANA402018
ConcordLOUISIANA392019
River RoadLOUISIANA382024
FrogmoreLOUISIANA372024
Crowley'S RidgeARKANSAS362024
GonzalesLOUISIANA352019
Baton RougeLOUISIANA352024
Cp GirardeauMISSOURI352024
BrousvilleLOUISIANA332024
SaffellARKANSAS322019
LaroseLOUISIANA321992
South BendARKANSAS292023
Morgan CityLOUISIANA292022
TippoMISSISSIPPI292024
Delta N.F.MISSISSIPPI282021
Augusta 2ARKANSAS272016
TallahatchieMISSISSIPPI272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.