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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Carolina Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest has surged: up 31× on the route-weighted index since 1976.

31×Since 1976TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
29YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Carolina Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest. See the full index history below.

Carolina Wren In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.22Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±79%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 0.43 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.22 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±79%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19742030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.200.000.45
20270.210.000.45
20280.210.000.46
20290.220.000.46
20300.220.000.47

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HartfordCONNECTICUT72024
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS72024
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS52022
FitzwilliamNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025
PeterboroughNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
ConcordNEW-HAMPSHIRE42025
N OrangeMASSACHUSETTS32024
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS32024
HopkintonNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE32025
Northfield 2MAINE22014
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE22025
GaysvilleVERMONT22025
W RutlandVERMONT22024
New HartfordCONNECTICUT11978
WestbrookMAINE12024
Otisfield GrMAINE12012
HartfordMAINE12014
Bowdoin CtrMAINE12013
FreedomMAINE12021
BrooksMAINE12021
CarrabassettMAINE12017
Turner 2MAINE12025
CummingtonMASSACHUSETTS12012
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS12024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.