BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Carolina Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 68× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

68×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 68× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.56–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.56–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±72.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.56–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±72.2%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.413.2
20271.80.453.2
20281.90.493.3
20291.90.533.3
20302.00.563.3

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdougallNEW-YORK172025
HighlandNEW-YORK142022
GhentNEW-YORK142025
CayugaNEW-YORK122025
LucerneOHIO112025
CloverPENNSYLVANIA112025
PittsfieldOHIO102024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK72024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK72025
SalemNEW-YORK72024
NaplesNEW-YORK72025
Herner CrnsOHIO72025
HebronOHIO72025
HiramOHIO72025
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA72025
MendonNEW-YORK62024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK52025
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
AusterlitzNEW-YORK52025
RushvilleNEW-YORK52025
Canadice LNEW-YORK52025
ByronNEW-YORK52025
ClintonNEW-YORK52006
OrleansNEW-YORK42025
CrescentNEW-YORK42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.