BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 62× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

62×Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
64Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Carolina Wren has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 62× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Carolina Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.46–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.46–3.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±68.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.46–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.322.9
20261.70.362.9
20271.70.393.0
20281.70.433.0
20291.80.463.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North EastonNEW-YORK172024
HighlandNEW-YORK142022
LucerneOHIO142024
LattasburgOHIO142024
NaplesNEW-YORK122024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK102024
PittsfieldOHIO102024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK82024
GhentNEW-YORK82024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK82024
Herner CrnsOHIO82024
HiramOHIO82021
CloverPENNSYLVANIA82024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK72024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72024
SalemNEW-YORK72024
CayugaNEW-YORK62024
MacdougallNEW-YORK62024
MendonNEW-YORK62024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA62023
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
ClintonNEW-YORK52006
HebronOHIO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.