BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Carolina Wren In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 62× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

62×Since 1969
64Routes In Region
50Years

Notable Signals

long arc increasecomputed index

Carolina Wren has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 62× on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 60% by 2029 — from 4.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.46–3.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±68.8%, with 0% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-60%Change by 2029
1.8Projected 2029 index
0.46–3.195% range
±68.8%Backtest error
19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected index95% low95% high
20251.60.322.9
20261.70.362.9
20271.70.393.0
20281.70.433.0
20291.80.463.1

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Carolina Wren in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
North EastonNEW-YORK172024
HighlandNEW-YORK142022
LucerneOHIO142024
LattasburgOHIO142024
NaplesNEW-YORK122024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK102024
PittsfieldOHIO102024
RhinebeckNEW-YORK82024
GhentNEW-YORK82024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK82024
Herner CrnsOHIO82024
HiramOHIO82021
CloverPENNSYLVANIA82024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK72024
Cicero CtrNEW-YORK72024
SalemNEW-YORK72024
CayugaNEW-YORK62024
MacdougallNEW-YORK62024
MendonNEW-YORK62024
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62024
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA62023
W ShokanNEW-YORK52019
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
ClintonNEW-YORK52006
HebronOHIO52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.