BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Canyon Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+315%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
76Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 315% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Canyon Wren In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Great Basin is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±26.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Great Basin is projected to fall about 41% by 2030 — from 0.30 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.03–0.32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±26.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.170.030.32
20270.170.030.32
20280.170.030.32
20290.170.030.32
20300.170.030.32

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow VallyNEVADA62025
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON52025
Catlow RimOREGON42025
DorrisCALIFORNIA32019
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA32016
AlmoIDAHO32025
JarbidgeNEVADA32012
Carson RiverNEVADA32001
Blizzard GapOREGON32025
Jericho JunctionUTAH31997
YakimaWASHINGTON32025
Big PineCALIFORNIA22003
Magic MtnIDAHO22025
Fish CreekNEVADA22018
NewcastleUTAH22018
BickletonWASHINGTON22015
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON22025
BentonCALIFORNIA12024
BodieCALIFORNIA12025
LikelyCALIFORNIA12025
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA11981
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA12025
BartleCALIFORNIA11984
MadelineCALIFORNIA12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.