BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinForest birds

Canyon Wren in Great Basin has surged: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

+207%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
75Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has surged in Great Basin: up 207% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Canyon Wren In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Great Basin is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.02–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-35%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.16Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.3095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±17.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Great Basin is projected to fall about 35% by 2029 — from 0.24 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.16 (95% range 0.02–0.30). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±17.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.160.020.30
20260.160.020.30
20270.160.020.30
20280.160.020.30
20290.160.020.30

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Meadow VallyNEVADA52024
ImnahaOREGON52024
Blizzard GapOREGON52024
Trout CreekOREGON52021
DorrisCALIFORNIA32019
Deep SpringsCALIFORNIA32016
Magic MtnIDAHO32024
JarbidgeNEVADA32012
Carson RiverNEVADA32001
Jericho JunctionUTAH31997
YakimaWASHINGTON32024
Big PineCALIFORNIA22003
LikelyCALIFORNIA22018
Fish CreekNEVADA22018
Crooked Riv.OREGON22017
NewcastleUTAH22018
BickletonWASHINGTON22015
NighthawkWASHINGTON22024
Moses CouleeWASHINGTON22023
Lake ChelanWASHINGTON22024
BentonCALIFORNIA12024
BodieCALIFORNIA12024
Davis CreekCALIFORNIA11981
MacdoelCALIFORNIA12019
CedarvilleCALIFORNIA12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.