BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 38% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+38%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.75 (95% range 0.20–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-3%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.75Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.20–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±127.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.75 (95% range 0.20–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±127.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.720.171.3
20270.730.171.3
20280.740.181.3
20290.740.191.3
20300.750.201.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black GapTEXAS82025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52004
CastolonTEXAS52025
OzonaTEXAS42005
Bear MtnTEXAS42025
Devils R CynTEXAS42025
QueenNEW-MEXICO32019
Casa PiedraTEXAS32025
GageNEW-MEXICO22007
Hot SpringsTEXAS22010
Chisos BasinTEXAS22025
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12018
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12002
ComstockTEXAS12008
ShafterTEXAS11983
LongfellowTEXAS12025
ValentineTEXAS11984
SlaughterTEXAS12009
ToyahvaleTEXAS12025
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12009
Salt FlatTEXAS12014
CanutilloTEXAS12003
Dove Mtn.TEXAS12006
Ft. DavisTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.