BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertForest birds

Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert has held roughly steady: up 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.18–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+79%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.74Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.18–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±133.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 79% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.74 (95% range 0.18–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±133.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.710.151.3
20260.720.161.3
20270.730.171.3
20280.730.171.3
20290.740.181.3

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bear MtnTEXAS92015
Chisos BasinTEXAS62019
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52004
CastolonTEXAS52024
Devils R CynTEXAS52024
Black GapTEXAS42023
OzonaTEXAS42005
QueenNEW-MEXICO32019
GageNEW-MEXICO22007
Hot SpringsTEXAS22010
CarrizozoNEW-MEXICO12018
PinonNEW-MEXICO12024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO12002
ComstockTEXAS12008
ShafterTEXAS11983
LongfellowTEXAS12023
ValentineTEXAS11984
SlaughterTEXAS12009
Casa PiedraTEXAS11986
ToyahvaleTEXAS12024
Quitman Cyn.TEXAS12009
Salt FlatTEXAS12014
CanutilloTEXAS12003
Dove Mtn.TEXAS12006
Ft. DavisTEXAS12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.