BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 33 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

All regionsSonoran and Mojave DesertsForest birds

Canyon Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts has declined: down 39% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-39%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+103%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–0.3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts is projected to rise about 103% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.03–0.38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.020.37
20260.200.020.38
20270.200.020.38
20280.200.020.38
20290.200.030.38

Routes In Sonoran and Mojave Deserts

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Sonoran and Mojave Deserts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cutter 2ARIZONA92018
Casa GrandeARIZONA42021
Cabeza PrietARIZONA32019
FlorenceARIZONA21973
AjoARIZONA22008
RivieraARIZONA22024
Alamo Res.ARIZONA22023
OatmanARIZONA12014
WikieupARIZONA12024
Red RockARIZONA12005
Ajo 2ARIZONA12019
Organ PipeARIZONA11991
Bates WellARIZONA12023
Red Rock 2ARIZONA12023
UbehebeCALIFORNIA11986
OnyxCALIFORNIA12001
BarstowCALIFORNIA11969
Parker DamCALIFORNIA12007
IvanpahCALIFORNIA11989
TecopaCALIFORNIA12014
CottonwoodCALIFORNIA12013
Lone PineCALIFORNIA11998
Kelso ValleyCALIFORNIA12021
Joshua TreeCALIFORNIA11999
Greenwater VCALIFORNIA11989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.