BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 32 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Coastal California

All regionsCoastal CaliforniaForest birds

Canyon Wren in Coastal California has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-32%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Coastal California. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren In Coastal California Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Coastal California is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.18Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Coastal California is projected to fall about 17% by 2029 — from 0.21 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.18 (95% range 0.00–0.37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.180.000.38
20260.180.000.37
20270.180.000.37
20280.180.000.37
20290.180.000.37

Routes In Coastal California

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Coastal California.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CohassetCALIFORNIA62023
Mt BaldyCALIFORNIA42024
White RiverCALIFORNIA41992
Angelus OaksCALIFORNIA42016
Elsinore MtnCALIFORNIA32024
JofeganCALIFORNIA32018
Orange CoveCALIFORNIA22011
Sawmill MtnCALIFORNIA22014
TujungaCALIFORNIA22021
FallsvaleCALIFORNIA21981
AnzaCALIFORNIA21995
TehamaCALIFORNIA22016
RumseyCALIFORNIA12001
Yokohl ValCALIFORNIA11997
Santa YnezCALIFORNIA12019
Foster ParkCALIFORNIA11994
MorenoCALIFORNIA12024
Oak GroveCALIFORNIA12023
CoalingaCALIFORNIA12006
Lake SuccessCALIFORNIA11996
Big BearCALIFORNIA11980
Mesa GrandeCALIFORNIA11992
ValyermoCALIFORNIA12018
SisquocCALIFORNIA11987
Lockwood ValCALIFORNIA11987

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.