BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieForest birds

Canyon Wren in Shortgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: up 2% on the route-weighted index since 1973.

+2%Since 1973TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2024 — from 0.05 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-13%Change by 2024TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2024 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.0995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 13% by 2024 — from 0.05 in 2019 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.01–0.09). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712024
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20200.050.010.09
20210.050.010.09
20220.050.010.09
20230.050.010.09
20240.050.010.09

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SabinosoNEW-MEXICO32019
VillegreenCOLORADO12016
NinaviewCOLORADO11996
FarleyNEW-MEXICO11987
GrenvilleNEW-MEXICO12019
Wagon MoundNEW-MEXICO11971
VariaderoNEW-MEXICO12019
LoganNEW-MEXICO11999
Pine BluffWYOMING11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.