BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesForest birds

Canyon Wren in Badlands and Prairies has held roughly steady: down 7% on the route-weighted index since 1982.

-7%Since 1982TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
32YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canyon Wren in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Canyon Wren In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2027TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2027 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±104.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2027, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.11). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±104.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762027
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20230.060.000.11
20240.060.000.11
20250.060.000.11
20260.060.000.11
20270.060.000.11

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Black FoxSOUTH-DAKOTA22012
MoskeeWYOMING21995
Moskee 2WYOMING22021
Bull Mtn.MONTANA12009
Roubaix LkSOUTH-DAKOTA11976
BadlandsSOUTH-DAKOTA11987
Pleasant ValSOUTH-DAKOTA12007
Long DrawSOUTH-DAKOTA12022
HazelrodtSOUTH-DAKOTA12018
Lightning CrSOUTH-DAKOTA12018
Wind Cave NpSOUTH-DAKOTA12012
SeelyWYOMING12000
Teapot DomeWYOMING11983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.