BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canyon Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-88%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 88% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canyon Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±343.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+69%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±343.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to rise about 69% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±343.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.150.000.42
20260.150.000.41
20270.150.000.41
20280.150.000.41
20290.140.000.41

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AltonahUTAH121969
CastletonUTAH51985
RosevaleCOLORADO42023
Baxter PassCOLORADO42024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32010
Wilson CreekCOLORADO32018
BicknellUTAH31999
BufordCOLORADO22013
Dolores RivCOLORADO21991
WestcliffeCOLORADO22010
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO22017
NotomUTAH21991
Cane Spr DesUTAH22011
House RockARIZONA11999
The GapARIZONA11968
HuntARIZONA11986
ToroweapARIZONA12016
PageARIZONA12009
Navajo TrailARIZONA12005
Peach SpringARIZONA12018
SeligmanARIZONA12018
HarmonyCOLORADO12019
Douglas PassCOLORADO12019
DeltaCOLORADO12017
DoloresCOLORADO11984

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.