BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 16 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canyon Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

All regionsSouthern Rockies / Colorado PlateauForest birds

Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-76%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
94Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canyon Wren has collapsed in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Canyon Wren In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±320.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.14Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±320.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 0.20 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.14 (95% range 0.00–0.41). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±320.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.150.000.41
20270.150.000.41
20280.150.000.41
20290.150.000.41
20300.140.000.41

Routes In Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau

Routes recording Canyon Wren in Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
AltonahUTAH121969
HatchUTAH112025
CastletonUTAH51985
MoabUTAH52025
RosevaleCOLORADO42023
Baxter PassCOLORADO42024
Cheesman LkCOLORADO32010
BufordCOLORADO22013
Dolores RivCOLORADO21991
Rifle FallsCOLORADO22025
WestcliffeCOLORADO22010
Angel Fire 2NEW-MEXICO22017
BoulderUTAH22025
NotomUTAH21991
Cane Spr DesUTAH22011
FayetteUTAH22025
House RockARIZONA11999
The GapARIZONA11968
HuntARIZONA11986
ToroweapARIZONA12016
PageARIZONA12009
Navajo TrailARIZONA12005
Peach SpringARIZONA12018
SeligmanARIZONA12018
HarmonyCOLORADO12019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.