BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Canada Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+86%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 86% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.41 (95% range 0.29–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.41 (95% range 0.29–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.400.270.52
20270.400.280.53
20280.410.280.53
20290.410.290.54
20300.410.290.54

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA112024
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA102025
Newfound GapTENNESSEE82025
N. Mills RivNORTH-CAROLINA71995
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA72025
AndrewsNORTH-CAROLINA61998
Sproul Sf-APENNSYLVANIA62025
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA52025
Laurel HillPENNSYLVANIA52025
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA52025
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA41992
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA42024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA42018
Big MeadowsVIRGINIA42025
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA32025
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA32025
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA32024
Cades CoveTENNESSEE32017
Shenandoa NpVIRGINIA32025
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA32002
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA32025
FloydMARYLAND22025
S BerneNEW-YORK22012
LaurensNEW-YORK22023
OneontaNEW-YORK22011

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.