BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains has risen sharply: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+73%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
145Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has risen sharply in Appalachian Mountains: up 73% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Warbler In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.41 (95% range 0.29–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.41Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.29–0.5495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.41 (95% range 0.29–0.54). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.400.270.52
20260.400.280.53
20270.410.280.53
20280.410.280.54
20290.410.290.54

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KyleNORTH-CAROLINA112024
Glade Run 2WEST-VIRGINIA102024
French Broad RiverNORTH-CAROLINA82024
N. Mills RivNORTH-CAROLINA71995
AndrewsNORTH-CAROLINA61998
CherokeeNORTH-CAROLINA62024
RichwoodWEST-VIRGINIA62024
LinvilleNORTH-CAROLINA52024
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA52024
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA41992
DuboistownPENNSYLVANIA42024
Broad Mtn.PENNSYLVANIA42024
Newfound GapTENNESSEE42024
Mountain Lk.VIRGINIA42018
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA42024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA32024
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA32023
Cades CoveTENNESSEE32017
Glade RunWEST-VIRGINIA32002
BemisWEST-VIRGINIA32024
JenningsMARYLAND22024
S BerneNEW-YORK22012
LaurensNEW-YORK22023
OneontaNEW-YORK22011
OxfordNEW-YORK21971

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.