BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Canada Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 65% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-65%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
30Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
34YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Canada Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Canada Warbler In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.03). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.04
20250.010.000.03
20260.010.000.03
20270.000.000.03
20280.000.000.03

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GreshamWISCONSIN22004
GrimmsWISCONSIN22010
Indiana DuneINDIANA11993
ScottvilleMICHIGAN11983
Big Blue LkMICHIGAN11995
BravoMICHIGAN12006
MontereyMICHIGAN11990
MottvilleMICHIGAN11991
No BradleyMICHIGAN11970
HungerfordMICHIGAN12014
New BuffaloMICHIGAN11994
Allegan WmaMICHIGAN12001
AlmenaMICHIGAN12013
Barry S.G.A.MICHIGAN11995
St StephenMINNESOTA11991
LoraineWISCONSIN11994
CumberlandWISCONSIN11993
HolwayWISCONSIN11970
MerrillWISCONSIN11998
HatfieldWISCONSIN11971
StratfordWISCONSIN11997
Stevens PtWISCONSIN11999
ManawaWISCONSIN12022
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN12012
CascoWISCONSIN12023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.