BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Canada Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Canada Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Canada Warbler has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Canada Warbler In Atlantic Northern Forest Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.5895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±87.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Canada Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.63 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.58). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±87.3%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.65
20260.020.000.61
20270.000.000.58
20280.000.000.58
20290.000.000.58

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Canada Warbler in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE251968
SabattisNEW-YORK71983
NorthfieldMAINE61981
TopsfieldMAINE61992
WanakenaNEW-YORK62024
Dexter LakeNEW-YORK61975
WatervilleVERMONT61980
FranconiaNEW-HAMPSHIRE52024
Wilson MillsMAINE42024
Dixville Notch 2NEW-HAMPSHIRE42024
InletNEW-YORK42017
St Regis FlsNEW-YORK42016
TurnerMAINE32002
Carrying PlMAINE32022
BaxterMAINE31988
Seboomook LkMAINE32014
Forest StaMAINE32000
Clayton LakeMAINE32001
LudlowMAINE31998
St DavidMAINE32005
Dixvil NotchNEW-HAMPSHIRE32017
Hope FallsNEW-YORK31994
DegrasseNEW-YORK32024
GabrielsNEW-YORK32024
NewcastleMAINE22003

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.